How Donald Trump’s Chances Compare to Past Elections at 50 Day Mark

With 50 days until the election, polling indicates the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is looking more like the 2016 election than the 2020 election.
Harris’ surge as the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden left the race was welcome news for Democrats, but her lead isn’t as great as Biden’s was in 2020 at this point in the election. Trump’s known to poll worse than he performs in elections and he’s greatly expanded his lead with white evangelicals over the years, a key voting group for the Republican candidate.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling average gives Harris a 3-point advantage over Trump, slightly above former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 1.6 lead in 2016. In 2020, Biden had a nearly 7-point advantage at the same point in the election.
“Generally speaking Trump is currently polling between where he was in ’16 and ’20 as Election Day approached. That could change. The more it tightens up in the swing states—not nationally—the more likely he is to win,” Michael Gordon, a principal at The Gordon Group and a Democratic strategist, told Newsweek.
Polling from the New York Times paints a similar picture of the race. In 2020, Biden had an 8-point lead in September, a significantly greater lead than Clinton’s 2-point lead in 2016. Harris is currently trailing Trump by 2 points, according to a New York Times poll from September 8.
The poll was conducted before the presidential debate and Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for the New York Times noted that Harris leads in the New York Times polling average. Harris was widely regarded as the winner of the presidential debate and he noted it could be another week before any post-debate bump is realized in polls. However, it’s possible the benefit she may have gotten from the debate could be tempered if people turn their attention to Sunday’s assassination attempt on Trump instead of the debate.
After the July shooting at Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, many expected Trump to see a major boost in his polling like other presidents had after assassination attempts. Trump got promising news from some polls in the wake of the shooting, but overall, it didn’t create a massive surge in support for him.
Since 2020, Trump’s increased his appeal with both men and women. Men were split evenly between Biden and Trump at this point in the 2020 election, but now, Trump has a 7-point lead over Harris with men, according to New York Times polling. Marist polling indicates a similar trend. In 2016, Trump had an 11-point advantage with male voters and in 2020, that lead shrunk to a 4-point lead. It’s since increased to a 12-point lead, according to a September Marist poll.
Harris still has a commanding lead when it comes to female voters, with a 15-point advantage over Trump. However, that’s lower than Biden’s 22-point lead at this point in the election and Clinton’s 20-point advantage, according to Marist polling.
Sabrina Karim, an associate professor at Cornell University, said in July she expects the gap between male and female voters to “become starker” as the election gets closer.
“Younger female voters might be more attracted to Vice President Harris, who stands in strong opposition to the hyper-masculine personality and policies of the Trump-Vance ticket. She appeals to younger women, who don’t want to lose their rights and see in Harris someone who will fight for them,” Karim said.
Ross K. Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University, told The Hill that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Harris’ vice president pick, could help her win over male voters. Seen as a “man’s man,” Baker said Walz is the type of person who could connect with male voters who feel alienated by policies that have been “very much tilted in favor of women.”
Trump prided himself on being the “most pro-life president” in America’s history and evangelicals were critical of his 2016 election victory. He’s taken credit for the overturning of Roe v. Wade because of his Supreme Court justice nominees and he’s seen his support among evangelicals increase since the 2016 election. His support among white evangelicals went from 73 percent in 2016, down to 70 percent in 2020, according to Marist polling. That support has since jumped to 82 percent, according to a September Marist poll.
The Republican candidate is expected to retain his evangelical supporters, but he’s sparked some anger among the key voting bloc as he tries to soften his stance on abortion.
“It’s disastrous that he’s attempted to run against his own track record,” said Albert Mohler, a prominent evangelical and head of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, told Politico. “There is a real danger to the Trump campaign that pro-life voters just don’t turn out for him with the intensity that he needs.”
Trump said last week that he’ll vote no in November on the ballot measure that would enshrine abortion rights in Florida after implying he may vote to overturn the state’s six-week abortion ban.
Going too far on the issue of abortion, though, runs the risk of Trump losing the more moderate voters he needs to win in critical swing states.
While polling can give an insight into the presidential election, Gordon said Trump’s changed the game when it comes to predicting who will win.
“Among other things in the current political era, Trump has upended modern presidential polling. Both in 2016 when he won and 2020 when he lost, Trump outperformed the polls leading up to Election Day,” Gordon said.